What will become of the Braves in the final third?

Today the Braves open a four-game set in Washington as baseball heads into its final 2 months of regular season play. In Ken Burns’ documentary on baseball, George Will explains the nature of a full baseball season. He noted that the best teams lose up to about a third of their games, while the worst teams win a third. The argument Will says “is over that final third.”

August 5th marked the end of the Braves “2nd third” at 108 games. Their record of 60-48 as them in 2nd place in the National League East, 1.5 games behind the Phillies and 4 games ahead of Washington. No one expected the Braves to be this competitive this late into the season. Nor did anyone expect the Nationals to be struggling to stay above .500

So how do these circumstances project over the next 2 months? What will become of the final “third”?

First, some big-picture numbers. The Braves rank 3rd overall in team batting average. They are top ten in runs scored and have shown a knack for making those runs count, especially in late innings. Their team ERA ranks 11th but seems likely to improve with recent acquisitions.

The next 8 weeks will tell the story. Thanks to some deft handy work by GM Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves roster is significantly stronger than it was 2 weeks ago. They gained pitching help with one starter (Kevin Gausman) and two seasoned relievers (lefty Jonny Venters and righty Brad Brach). They’ve also added outfielder Adam Duvall who brings badly needed right-handed power and decent defensive skills.

Perhaps more important, Anthopoulos garnered these players without mortgaging the farm. So that promising future of the farm system production we’ve heard so much about still looks…promising.

As we start the final 54, a quick line up review is in order.
2018 will be remembered as the year the Braves returned to the All-Star game en masse. The right side of the lineup, including Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, and Nick Markakis have all retained their early season form so far in the second half.

In centerfield, Ender Inciarte has struggled to regain his form of 2017. While his defense remains stellar, the offensive production has dropped off sharply, prompting the move to add Duvall who will start in left against left-handed pitching with regular left fielder Ronald Acuna moving to center on those days. Acuna has had a strong rookie season since rejoining the lineup 2 months ago. He has had the ups and downs expected of a rookie, but his speed and power…and exuberance…have added much to the Braves’ attack.

Back in the infield, Camargo has been a pleasant surprise at 3rd with strong defense and.opportunistic offense, including 13 homers thus far.
His neighbor at short, Dansby Swanson, has been steady overall, but his offense has been uneven again this season.

At catcher, Suzuki and Flowers have again shared the duties in fine fashion, though Suzuki has been the bigger contributor offensively.

The Braves are 8-6 since the All-Star break. That 2 game nudge over 500 is the margin over .500 for the most recent 54 games. In other words, the Braves have been a .500 team for the past 2 months.

Today launches the final third. This horse race is coming down the backstretch, heading toward the homestretch. As always, starting pitching will be key. Julio Teheran, showing up as Cy Young one start and sigh…bum! the next, still needs to find some consistency. Newcomb and Folty have been better than that and if the Braves find their way to postseason play, those two will have to play a big role. Sanchez has been the pillar of the rotation. Gausman will be counted in for innings and steady pitching support.

The Braves finish their schedule with 7 of their final 10 games vs. Philadelphia. These will likely tell the story of 2018.